Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs
“The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable…
Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China
African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences…
Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security
Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic…
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Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls
When modelling medium and long-term challenges we need a reference path of economic development (the so-called baseline). Because sectoral models often offer a more fundamental understanding of future developments for specific sectors, many CGE modeling teams have adopted different kinds of linking approaches to sectoral models to generate baselines. We…
The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face…
Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: the role of agricultural technologies
The world’s population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. Climate change, population, and income growth will drive food demand in the coming decades. Baseline scenarios show food prices for maize, rice, and wheat would significantly increase between 2005 and 2050, and the number of people at risk of…
Current and future trade in livestock products
Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socio-economic trends, which have greatly influenced changes in dietary patterns globally and, more specifically, have increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are expected to endure…
The Future of Sustainable Development and Agrobiodiversity: Essential for people and the planet
A sustainable future can’t happen without conserving biodiversity. Agrobiodiversity, likewise, is essential for resilient food systems and healthy people. Diversity in the field and in the landscape helps control pests, disease, and weather-related stress. Agrobiodiversity has emerged as a solution for food security and healthy diets for a growing population,…
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The Future of Sustainable Development and Agrobiodiversity: Essential for people and the planet
