Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models
We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector,…
Participatory modelling to improve partnership schemes for future Community-Based Forest Management in Sumbawa District, Indonesia
As part of its Community-Based Forest Management (CBFM) Programme, the local government of Sumbawa District in West Nusa Tenggara Province of Eastern Indonesia initiated a partnership programme between the Forestry District Agency and tree grower cooperatives in 2002. The partnership scheme aims to reduce illegal logging and forest encroachment on…
Edible insects and the future of food: a foresight scenario exercise on entomophagy and global food security
This document reports on the findings of a small project in which we used the tools of Foresight to think about the potential of edible insects to contribute to global food security in a future global food system. Foresight offers a tool box of approaches and methods for…
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Modeling the dynamics of landscapes and livelihoods in Malinau District, Indonesia
“The complex dynamic interactions between land resources and society have to be taken into account when planning land use and managing land resources. Simulation models and participatory modeling can be ideal tools to improve our understanding of these complex interactions. For several decades, land use in Malinau district was dictated…
Developing multi-stakeholder forest management scenarios: a multi-agent system simulation approach applied in Indonesia
Participatory approaches to development in general and natural resource management in particular are now a widely accepted management strategy. Multi-agent system (MAS), a computer-based tool, offers a promising approach for multi-stakeholder management systems such as the case involving community-managed resources. MAS provides a framework where stakeholders’ (or agents) individual actions,…
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Global Food Security Special Issue on Foresight
The Future of Wheat: Could climate-resilience genes be the key to safeguarding the world’s most cultivated crop?
Beans, Beans, and the power of Genes
The Future of Sustainable Development and Agrobiodiversity: Essential for people and the planet
