As the population grows in Africa, animal products are in high demand. By 2050, meat demand is expected to quadruple, milk demand triple, and fish demand to increase by 30%. On the production side, poultry represents the frontrunner in West Africa. East Africa, traditionally the largest consumer of milk, is projected to dominate dairy production. However, since demand will likely exceed production growth, imports will make up the difference, rising significantly. Increase in animal-sourced foods has the potential to improve nutrition, but regional differences need to be examined to understand the overall nutritional impact. While potentially beneficial in terms of nutrition, increased livestock production could involve environmental degradation. Investments should focus on scaling-up sustainable management practices to avoid these negative impacts. Foresight techniques can help decipher the next steps to balance economic development, nutritional needs, and environmental conservation. Check out the brief for more insight into the future of animal source foods in Africa.

Figure 1: Distribution of ASF protein supply in Africa reported in 2018 and projected for 2050 (amounts in grams per person per day (g/cap/d) and composition in percent (%)). (Data source: Panel A from FAO food balance sheets1; Panel B from IMPACT model simulations of ‘business-as-usual’ projections using IMPACT main (for livestock12) and IMPACT Fish (for fish10) model versions). IMPACT does not replicate for 2050, supply of all the livestock and other terrestrial animal products present in the 2018 (FAO) data. As such, the simulation of livestock products is more aggregated in the future than in the baseline year. For all products in 2050, the per capita protein supply is generated from projections of total supply and (divided by) human population. The models do not factor individual or household factors in the calculation of per capita quantities

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