The study builds on the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios and examines three variants: a
sustainable intensification scenario with high economic growth, high GDP growth, changing diets and a high
degree of technological change (SSP1); a continuation of current trends (SSP2); and a degradation scenario with
little technological change, poor economic growth and high population growth (SSP3).
Using a global partial equilibrium model (GLOBIOM), we determine consumption, production, prices and trade projections for different animal products (milk from cattle and small ruminants, meat from cattle, small ruminant and monogastrics, and eggs) for each scenario. We estimate the impacts of increasing production on
key environmental dimensions (use of nitrogen, land-use change, greenhouse gases) and examine the role of different farming systems (pastoralists, smallholder mixed crop-livestock systems and industrial systems) in meeting the demand for livestock products. We compare Africa against selected regions of the world and also discuss how the results impact different regions in sub-Saharan Africa (East, West, and Southern Africa and the Congo Basin).
We also discuss the implications of our findings for the competitiveness of the sector, for what roles smallholders and pastoralists may play in the future, and discuss the potential disease impacts of meeting livestock product demand. We conclude with policy recommendations for realizing the potential of livestock as an engine of economic growth, food security and environmental well-being in sub- Saharan Africa.