The land-use change caused by oil palm expansion results in adverse impacts on ecosystem functions and services provided by natural forests. This study assesses the impacts of oil palm expansion on key ecosystem services and analyzes the trade-offs among ecosystem services under four plausible future land-use scenarios in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia: business as usual, moratorium, zero gross deforestation and sustainable intensification. A trade-off between carbon benefit and habitat quality was observed in the area with low carbon stock. Providing some habitat quality in areas of oil palm expansion enhanced the carbon benefit. A synergy between carbon sequestration and water yield was evident due to oil palm expansion on Dry Rice Land with Mixed Scrub under the zero gross deforestation scenario. Among the four plausible LULC scenarios, zero gross deforestation is the most desirable option for the study area in Central Kalimantan. A successful implementation of zero gross deforestation requires a review of the forest moratorium to encompass all forest types, a clear land-use policy strategy and a detailed land-use plan involving all jurisdictions and engagement of stakeholders. Sustainable intensification is the second-best land use and land cover option for oil palm expansion with an assumed average yield enhancement to 5 tCPO ha-1 yr-1. However, enhancing yield in smallholder farms by 78% is highly challenging. It may be achievable by providing appropriate and adequate technical and management supports to smallholder farms and by ensuring off-take markets for oil palm produced by smallholders.
