Disability-adjusted life years due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050
Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food-nutrition security. Nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy actions.To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)—due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively—using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change…
Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand
In recent decades there has been a sustained and substantial shift in human diets across the globe towards including more livestock-derived foods. Continuing debates scrutinize how these dietary shifts affect human health, the natural environment, and livelihoods. However, amidst these debates there remain unanswered questions about how demand for livestock-derived…
Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China
African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences…
Latest Posts
Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century
Twenty-first-century challenges for food and nutrition security include the spread of obesity worldwide and persistent undernutrition in vulnerable populations, along with continued micronutrient deficiencies. Climate change, increasing incomes and evolving diets complicate the search for sustainable solutions. Projecting to the year 2050, we explore future macronutrient and micronutrient adequacy with…
Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study
Summary Background Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable…
Health and nutritional aspects of sustainable diet strategies and their association with environmental impacts: a global modelling analysis with country-level detail
Summary Background Sustainable diets are intended to address the increasing health and environmental concerns related to food production and consumption. Although many candidates for sustainable diets have emerged, a consistent and joint environmental and health analysis of these diets has not been done at a regional level. Using an integrated…
Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems
Food systems have the potential to nurture human health and support environmental sustainability; however, they are currently threatening both. Providing a growing global population with healthy diets from sustainable food systems is an immediate challenge. Although global food production of calories has kept pace with population growth, more than 820…
Conjecturing Production, Imports and Consumption of Horticulture in Indonesia In 2050: A GAMS Simulation Through Changes in Yields Induced by Climate Change
Indication of Earth’s changing climate with rapid pace currently present time has been observed and extensively documented. All these changes will undoubtedly lead to deterioration in quantity and quality of land, water, and micro-climate where the horticultural crops are grown. Subsequently, it can be anticipated that land and horticultural productivity…
Livestock Futures to 2020: How Will They Shape Food, Environmental, Health, and Global Security?
Livestock production is one of the main human activities. As incomes grow in middle and even low income countries, demand for livestock products is booming, with important benefits and risks for food security, human welfare, and global security. Positively, livestock are sources of income, savings, food, fuel, and transport for…
Popular
The Future of Wood: A renewable resource overlooked in the search for sustainability?
The Future of Animal Source Food: Rising demands in Africa
CGIAR Foresight Report Working Papers
Global Food Security Special Issue on Foresight
The Future of Dryland Cereals and Legumes in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: Climate resilient crops for food security
The Future of Wheat: Could climate-resilience genes be the key to safeguarding the world’s most cultivated crop?
Beans, Beans, and the power of Genes
The Future of Sustainable Development and Agrobiodiversity: Essential for people and the planet
