Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam
Smallholder tree plantations are seen as promising routes to alleviating poverty and increasing forest area among the countries in Southeast Asia. However, implementation has been disappointing, which led scientists at the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) to consider a scenario exercise as a way to mitigate the risk of…
Governing the teak furniture business: a global value chain system dynamic modelling approach
Javanese teak forest constitutes more than 35% of world teak forests. It provides employment and livelihood to millions of people. This paper describes the use of systems dynamics to mimic the value chain of teak from forest to final furniture market using phases of conceptual design, model specification, model evaluation…
Multi-agent simulation of alternative scenarios of collaborative forest management
International calls for sustainable development advocate that forest management should be carried out in a multi-stakeholder environment. The importance of community participation is acknowledged in the Indonesian act no. 41 on Forestry (1999). However, it is not clear how to achieve this in areas already allocated to a concession holder.
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Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerability
The projected impacts of climate change are significant, and despite the uncertainties associated with current climate and ecosystem model projections, the associated changes in the provision of forest ecosystem services are expected to be substantial in many parts of the world. These impacts will present significant social and conomic challenges…
Trends and future scenarios of forestry and other land uses employment in Indonesia: a modeling approach
Environmental sustainability and poverty are some of the most important targets in the United Nations Millenium Development Goals. However, the relationship between employment and forestry development is unclear, especially when it comes to illegal logging. This study aims to generate projections for forestry and other land use in Indonesia and…
Evaluating forest growth models
Effective model evaluation is not a single, simple procedure, but comprises several interrelated steps that cannot be separated from each other or from the purpose and process of model construction. We draw attention to several statistical and graphical procedures that may assist in model calibration and evaluation, with special emphasis…
Modeling the dynamics of landscapes and livelihoods in Malinau District, Indonesia
“The complex dynamic interactions between land resources and society have to be taken into account when planning land use and managing land resources. Simulation models and participatory modeling can be ideal tools to improve our understanding of these complex interactions. For several decades, land use in Malinau district was dictated…
Assessing the quality of permanent sample plot databases for growth modelling in forest plantations
Informed plantation management requires a good database, since the quality of information depends on the quality of data, growth models and other planning tools. There are several important questions concerning permanent plots: how many plots, where to put them, and how to manage them. Plot measurement procedures are also important.
Modeling carbon sequestration in afforestation and forest magement projects: the CO2FIX V 2.0 approach
The paper describes the Version 2 of the CO2FIX (CO2FIX V.2) model, a user-friendly tool for dynamically estimating the carbon sequestration potential of forest management, agroforesty and afforestation projects. CO2FIX V.2 is a multi-cohort ecosystem-level model based on carbon accounting of forest stands, including forest biomass, soils and products. Carbon…
Development of multistakeholder scenarios of secondary forest management: a multiagent system simulation approach
The state owned company, PT. Inhutani II Sub Unit Malinau, has managed the lowland dipterocarps forest in Malinau District, East Kalimantan for over 10 years. They established permanent sample plots (PSP) for measuring the growth and the yield in their area. However, current regulations do not give the company a…
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