Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices
In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and…
Dynamic trade-off analysis of multiple ecosystem services under land use change scenarios: Towards putting ecosystem services into planning in Iran
This study dynamically analyzes the trade-off between three ecosystem services (ESs), including soil retention, habitat quality, and food supply in the Gorganrood watershed, northeastern Iran. In this regard, several analytic tools including the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (InVEST) model, Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model, Intensity Analysis and…
Guide for co-elaboration of scenarios: Building shared understanding and joint action for reform and security of forest tenure
The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) initiated the GCS-Tenure project in Indonesia, Uganda and Peru conducted the study to analyze the relationships between statutory and customary land tenure and how these relationships affect tenure security of forest-dependent communities, including women and other marginalized groups. Using a global comparative approach…
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Participatory modelling to improve partnership schemes for future Community-Based Forest Management in Sumbawa District, Indonesia
As part of its Community-Based Forest Management (CBFM) Programme, the local government of Sumbawa District in West Nusa Tenggara Province of Eastern Indonesia initiated a partnership programme between the Forestry District Agency and tree grower cooperatives in 2002. The partnership scheme aims to reduce illegal logging and forest encroachment on…
Future scenarios as an instrument for forest management: manual for training facilitators of future scenarios
The purpose of this manual is to help trainers in future scenario better facilitate training workshops for field officers such as forestry managers, extension officers and researchers who are keen to facilitate future scenarios in their forest management projects. Future scenarios are a diverse and flexible set of methods that…
Climate Scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them
Climate change profoundly affects the natural and social environment. Decision-makers and resource managers require information regarding future changes in climate average and variability to better anticipate potential impacts of climate change. This book provides some overviews on the roles of climate scenarios in adaptation planning and what should be considered…
Imagining transformative futures: participatory foresight for food systems change
Transformations inherently involve systems change and because of the political nature of change, are subject to contestation. A potentially effective strategy to further transformative change that builds on interdisciplinary, multiactor, and multiscale-practices and values is the use of foresight. Foresight covers a wide range of methods to systematically investigate the…
The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face…
Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options
As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world’s population. This study…
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