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Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices
In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and…
Supporting sustainable expansion of livestock production in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: Scenario analysis of investment options
Growth in demand for livestock-derived foods will likely remain strong in low- and middle- income countries, fueling concerns about expansion of production and the management of natural resources. Recent research suggests that the envisioned negative effects are not inevitable and that benefits such as improved food security can be enhanced.
Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss
Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on…
Dynamic trade-off analysis of multiple ecosystem services under land use change scenarios: Towards putting ecosystem services into planning in Iran
This study dynamically analyzes the trade-off between three ecosystem services (ESs), including soil retention, habitat quality, and food supply in the Gorganrood watershed, northeastern Iran. In this regard, several analytic tools including the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (InVEST) model, Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model, Intensity Analysis and…
Guide for co-elaboration of scenarios: Building shared understanding and joint action for reform and security of forest tenure
The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) initiated the GCS-Tenure project in Indonesia, Uganda and Peru conducted the study to analyze the relationships between statutory and customary land tenure and how these relationships affect tenure security of forest-dependent communities, including women and other marginalized groups. Using a global comparative approach…
Testing a multi-scale scenario approach for smallholder tree plantations in Indonesia and Vietnam
Smallholder tree plantations are seen as promising routes to alleviating poverty and increasing forest area among the countries in Southeast Asia. However, implementation has been disappointing, which led scientists at the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) to consider a scenario exercise as a way to mitigate the risk of…
Envisioning the future and learning from the past: adapting to a changing environment in northern Mali
In West Africa, rural livelihoods depending on natural resources develop coping and adapting strategies to face climate variability or change and economic or political changes. The former Lake Faguibine in northern Mali has experienced drastic ecological, social, and economic changes. Forests have emerged on the former lake and have become…