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Modelling environmental and socio-economic trade-offs associated with land-sparing and land-sharing approaches to oil palm expansion

Posted by on 2021-12-23

The effectiveness of land-sharing and land-sparing approaches has been widely debated. Yet, few studies quantify the environmental and socio-economic outcomes of these approaches within a real-world landscape. Indonesia’s plans to increase its palm oil production present an opportunity to investigate the potential environmental and socio-economic implications of the land-sharing and…

Governing the teak furniture business: a global value chain system dynamic modelling approach

Posted by on 2021-12-23

Javanese teak forest constitutes more than 35% of world teak forests. It provides employment and livelihood to millions of people. This paper describes the use of systems dynamics to mimic the value chain of teak from forest to final furniture market using phases of conceptual design, model specification, model evaluation…

Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century

Posted by on 2021-12-23

Twenty-first-century challenges for food and nutrition security include the spread of obesity worldwide and persistent undernutrition in vulnerable populations, along with continued micronutrient deficiencies. Climate change, increasing incomes and evolving diets complicate the search for sustainable solutions. Projecting to the year 2050, we explore future macronutrient and micronutrient adequacy with…

Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines

Posted by on 2021-12-23

Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial…

Distributional impacts of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines

Posted by on 2021-12-23

In March 2019, the government of the Philippines promulgated a bill called the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL). It has dramatically changed the policy landscape in the rice sector and generated heated debates on how it would affect food security and poverty. This study explores the welfare effects of this reform…

Multi-agent simulation of alternative scenarios of collaborative forest management

Posted by on 2021-12-23

International calls for sustainable development advocate that forest management should be carried out in a multi-stakeholder environment. The importance of community participation is acknowledged in the Indonesian act no. 41 on Forestry (1999). However, it is not clear how to achieve this in areas already allocated to a concession holder.

Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio

Posted by on 2021-12-23

This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as…