Climate Scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them
Climate change profoundly affects the natural and social environment. Decision-makers and resource managers require information regarding future changes in climate average and variability to better anticipate potential impacts of climate change. This book provides some overviews on the roles of climate scenarios in adaptation planning and what should be considered…
Extensions of the Bartlett-Lewis model for rainfall processes
While the berlett-Lewis model has been widely used for modelling rainfall processes at a fixed point in space over time, there are observed features, such as longer-scale dependence, which are not well fitted by the model. In this paper is a study of an extension where the authors put an…
Building future scenarios: Governance, land use and carbon management at the landscape scale
In this guide, the elaboration of alternative future scenarios is followed by the application of a simplified tool to model the carbon emissions patterns and outcomes of each option; this tool will be provided separately on the project web site and does not necessarily need to be included in the…
Latest Posts
Participatory modelling to improve partnership schemes for future Community-Based Forest Management in Sumbawa District, Indonesia
As part of its Community-Based Forest Management (CBFM) Programme, the local government of Sumbawa District in West Nusa Tenggara Province of Eastern Indonesia initiated a partnership programme between the Forestry District Agency and tree grower cooperatives in 2002. The partnership scheme aims to reduce illegal logging and forest encroachment on…
Modeling the dynamics of landscapes and livelihoods in Malinau District, Indonesia
“The complex dynamic interactions between land resources and society have to be taken into account when planning land use and managing land resources. Simulation models and participatory modeling can be ideal tools to improve our understanding of these complex interactions. For several decades, land use in Malinau district was dictated…
Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle
Theory and evidence indicate that trees and other vegetation influence the atmospheric water-cycle in various ways. These influences are more important, more complex, and more poorly characterised than is widely realised. While there is little doubt that changes in tree cover will impact the water-cycle, the wider consequences remain difficult…
Ecosystem services under future oil palm expansion scenarios in West Kalimantan, Indonesia
This study analyzes the five primary ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies associated with future scenarios of oil palm plantations in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Three plausible future scenarios were assessed: 1) business as usual, 2) conservation and, 3) sustainable intensification, based on current land-use policy and spatial planning and…
Oil palm and ecosystem services under different landscape management scenarios
“Based on the current land-use policy, spatial planning and maps of oil palm expansion in Indonesia, this study identified three plausible future scenarios; namely business as usual, conservation and sustainable intensification for future development of oil palm plantations in the study area.This study concludes that ecosystem services are negatively…
Spatially explicit model of deforestation in Bolivia
[No abstract available]…
Assessing the quality of permanent sample plot databases for growth modelling in forest plantations
[No abstract available]…
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