Mapping foresight revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future.
The “Mapping Foresight” report is part of a series of publications produced by the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN project, 2004-2008). EFMN is a Europe-wide network inspired and financed by the European Commission within the framework of the Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform implemented under the Research Framework Programme (FP7). The…
Environmental services and the precautionary principle: using scenarios to reconcile conservation and livelihood objectives in upper catchments
Strategies for environmental governance and conservation in Africa have relied on regulatory mechanisms (policies) that further restrict already limited livelihood options by prohibiting certain land uses and isolating people from forest resources. Environmental service rewards (ESR) present an opportunity for incentives-based conservation, enabling livelihood and conservation goals to be more…
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Future environmental impacts and vulnerabilities
The focus of this chapter is on climate-change impacts on the environment, the structure and functioning of forests, on their biodiversity, and on the services and goods provided by forests in order to identify key vulnerabilities. Based on the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007d), we first…
The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation
Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km2 that is both the site of Indonesia’s first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current…
Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia
We examined the changes in forest status and people’s livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the…
Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerability
The projected impacts of climate change are significant, and despite the uncertainties associated with current climate and ecosystem model projections, the associated changes in the provision of forest ecosystem services are expected to be substantial in many parts of the world. These impacts will present significant social and conomic challenges…
Governing the teak furniture business: a global value chain system dynamic modelling approach
Javanese teak forest constitutes more than 35% of world teak forests. It provides employment and livelihood to millions of people. This paper describes the use of systems dynamics to mimic the value chain of teak from forest to final furniture market using phases of conceptual design, model specification, model evaluation…
Participatory modelling to improve partnership schemes for future Community-Based Forest Management in Sumbawa District, Indonesia
As part of its Community-Based Forest Management (CBFM) Programme, the local government of Sumbawa District in West Nusa Tenggara Province of Eastern Indonesia initiated a partnership programme between the Forestry District Agency and tree grower cooperatives in 2002. The partnership scheme aims to reduce illegal logging and forest encroachment on…
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Foresight Synthesis Briefs (1)
