Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models
We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector,…
Modelling environmental and socio-economic trade-offs associated with land-sparing and land-sharing approaches to oil palm expansion
The effectiveness of land-sharing and land-sparing approaches has been widely debated. Yet, few studies quantify the environmental and socio-economic outcomes of these approaches within a real-world landscape. Indonesia’s plans to increase its palm oil production present an opportunity to investigate the potential environmental and socio-economic implications of the land-sharing and…
Building future scenarios: Governance, land use and carbon management at the landscape scale
In this guide, the elaboration of alternative future scenarios is followed by the application of a simplified tool to model the carbon emissions patterns and outcomes of each option; this tool will be provided separately on the project web site and does not necessarily need to be included in the…
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Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: the role of agricultural technologies
The world’s population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. Climate change, population, and income growth will drive food demand in the coming decades. Baseline scenarios show food prices for maize, rice, and wheat would significantly increase between 2005 and 2050, and the number of people at risk of…
Forest futures: Linking global paths to local conditions
The chapter establishes links between elements of long-term global scenarios and the prerequisite conditions of sustainable forest management (SFM), as discussed in Parts I and III. It uses a component from a new global scenario exercise: the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), which are narratives that cover a spectrum of climate…
Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change
Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT
The various ways in which livestock production systems can be incorporated into economic, partial-equilibrium, multi-market models are presented, and the challenges outlined. A particular focus and illustrative case is livestock feed. Foremost among the challenges is the reconciliation of scientific understanding of livestock feed requirements and production characteristics with the…
Mapping the economic benefits to livestock keepers from intervening against bovine trypanosomosis in Eastern Africa
Endemic animal diseases such as tsetse-transmitted trypanosomosis are a constant drain on the financial resources of African livestock keepers and on the productivity of their livestock. Knowing where the potential benefits of removing animal trypanosomosis are distributed geographically would provide crucial evidence for prioritising and targeting cost-effective interventions as well…
Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions
Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed…
African Livestock Futures: Realizing the potential of livestock for food security, poverty reduction and the environment in Sub-Saharan Africa Report
The study builds on the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios and examines three variants: a sustainable intensification scenario with high economic growth, high GDP growth, changing diets and a high degree of technological change (SSP1); a continuation of current trends (SSP2); and a degradation scenario with…
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The Future of Wood: A renewable resource overlooked in the search for sustainability?
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Global Food Security Special Issue on Foresight
The Future of Wheat: Could climate-resilience genes be the key to safeguarding the world’s most cultivated crop?
Beans, Beans, and the power of Genes
The Future of Sustainable Development and Agrobiodiversity: Essential for people and the planet
