Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling
Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches…
Cocoa intensification scenarios and their predicted impact on CO2 emissions, biodiversity conservation, and rural livelihoods in the Guinea rain forest of West Africa
The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km2 at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive…
Participatory methods for planning the future in forest communities
Forest devolution and government decentralization have increased community control over forests. Remoteness, low literacy, and lack of formal planning experience often leave forest communities unprepared for their new responsibilities. Forest communities need to develop skills that allow them to establish goals and make decisions transparently and democratically and to negotiate…
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Green and blue water accounting in the Ganges and Nile basins: Implications for food and agricultural policy
Most food globally is produced from soil moisture that comes exclusively from precipitation, or “green” water. Moreover, most of the water reaching plants in irrigated systems also stems from precipitation. Despite this, irrigation or “blue” water has typically been the focus for policy analysis in the past, given the possibility…
Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options
As the global population grows and incomes in poor countries rise, so too, will the demand for food, placing additional pressure on sustainable food production. Climate change adds a further challenge, as changes in temperature and precipitation threaten agricultural productivity and the capacity to feed the world’s population. This study…
Conclusions and reflections for the future of forest tenure reform
This book has explored the experiences of forest tenure reforms in 11 countries, across dozens of regions and communities, with the goal of understanding their origins, processes of implementation and outcomes for local life and forest conditions. As we have seen, these reforms range from those that are somewhat older…
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