Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model

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Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs

Posted by on 2021-09-28

“The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable…

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Foresight Synthesis Briefs (1)

Posted by Gideon Kruseman on 2023-09-11
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Making foresight material interoperable

Posted by Gideon Kruseman on 2024-03-01

Climate change is expected to considerably affect the water resources in the Indus River basin in Pakistan and thus agricultural production in the country. This article reports an analysis of the impacts of various climate scenarios on both water resources and food production out to 2050. While changes in water availability range from –12% to +24%, depending on the scenario, crop yield and production impacts are negative across all scenarios, and net food imports increase. We suggest a combination of accelerated investment in agricultural research and increased water-use efficiency in agriculture to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on water and food.